Buy Low, Sell High – Why the BF is not buying back ANY BU Stock
The old stock market adage “buy low, sell high” is a strategy that has been drilled into our collective minds time and time again. It sounds rather simple and mundane but a large majority of American investors do just the opposite when it comes to investing their own retirement or investment funds. An article that looks into Stock Market Psychology explains that the humans often behave like a herd of sheep and innately look to others to determine the best course of action for themselves. This phenomenon is known as social proof and this concept is not exclusive to the financial sector.
Social Proofing seems to have carried over to the college hockey realm as even some of the best analysts in the country are all trying to make the masses believe that BU hockey is back. Buy, Buy, Buy!!!! I always try to traverse through the minutia generated by our ‘instant gratification’ oriented society and take all of the emotion out of the equation. The BF was a major seller of BU stock several weeks ago as were most of the mainstream media and followers of Hockey East after the departures of Cory Trivino (he was back in cour today) and Charlie Coyle. The culmination of negativity was at the final buzzer of BU’s New Year’s Eve loss to No#6 Notre Dame after a lackluster performance seemed to substantiate our prognostication of a BU demise.
Many amateur stock traders are prone to acting on emotion and will often sell off falling stock or hastily buy stock in a hot commodity because it performed well ‘today’ even if the PE ratio is through the roof. The same hockey analysts who were crestfallen and calling for the demise of BU after Coyle and Trivino departed are now (only 3 games later) telling their followers to buy back that stock that was sold around New Year’s.
As it stands today, I will give BU credit where it’s due as the team regrouped to win their last 3 games following the uninspired loss in South Bend. After reading through all of the major sites and some of the Hockey East blogs this week, it seems the pendulum has completely swung in the opposite direction than it was on New Year’s Eve and everyone has fully hopped back on the bandwagon.
The ‘ole what have you done for me lately mentality is in full effect; much like the nation’s swooping praise of the NY Giants and Eli Manning after their win over Green Bay, more or less declaring Eli a sure shot hall of famer. It’s the same hyperbole spawned by fans suddenly buying into the New England Patriot’s defense after they held the moribund, overhyped Denver offense to a meager 10 points last week. Come on folks, let’s look at the full resume here and not just operate in a myopic, what have you done for me in the last minute mentality.
Jim Connelly of the USCHO is one of the Hockey East analysts who is leaping back on to the BU Express. He posed the following in his recent article on the USCHO website proclaiming that any rumors of BU’s demise were greatly exaggerated.
“OK, folks, raise your hand if you began writing off Boston University right around Christmas Day.”
Ok, Jim, I humbly admit that my hand was erected as high as the next guy in December. I also want to let you know that my hand is still raised to this very second and there isn’t a result that could populate over the weekend that would change my mind. BU takes on a very average Providence College (9-9-2) team in a home and home set that are indeed both very winnable games for the Terriers.
Dave Starman who does a stellar job as analyst for CBS sports, is also calling his broker to buy back some of the Terrier stock. Starman tells us that the Terriers are playing as well as any team in the nation and puts his faith in Jack Parker to “keep the ship afloat.” Come on Dave! BU beat Northeastern and an unassuming Harvard Crimson team and we are declaring them the hottest team in the nation?
Starman does point out some telling figures that undoubtedly cements my belief in the BU demise even further:
“After a win at Maine in early December, Boston University lost 32 percent of its offense in 72 hours when Corey Trivino was arrested and Charlie Coyle left for the QMJH.”
If you lose 32 percent of your offense and 2 players with the elite talent that both Coyle and Trivino possessed, one would think BU’s national title hopes would be dubious at best. Sure you can scrap together some 2nd, 3rd and 4th line scrappy players like Garrett Noonan, Sahir Gill or perhaps Justin Courtnall who combined could help mitigate some of the production loss. With BU’s expansive recruiting depth, they have some young talent that can help fill some of the void and are far more suited to deal with losses than say a middle of the road Hockey East team.
They can still beat the likes of the NU’s and Providence’s of the world but when you sign a letter of intent to play at an acclaimed program like BU, you are expected to compete for Beanpot titles and National Championships every single year. This team is lacking the star power and goal scoring prowess that Trivino and Coyle possessed and will simply not have enough to compete nationally with the likes of Minnesota, Minnesota- Duluth or even a team behind the Terriers in the national polls, Notre Dame come March.
Starman also made some pertinent points about the veteran leadership at BU that certainly can’t be denied:
“Kieran Millan continues to play well in goal. It started to trend well for him in late November with a win at Boston College and has continued straight through to now. Chris Connolly, Adam Clendening and Alex Chiasson continue to provide leadership and offense and guys like Wade Megan and Sahir Gill are making timely contributions.”
Does a win over 2 average teams in Northeastern (.500) and Harvard (4-6-4) and a nice win over #7 Merrimack constitute a nice turnaround for BU? Of course it does, but does it warrant all of this overly-emotional hype that is more fitting of a national title contender? Absolutely not!
I give these guys and their battle tested general, Jack Parker (going for HE win #400 tonight), credit for turning things around recently. I just don’t see how this can be sustained when the big boys of college hockey come ‘a knockin in March.
Check out the BU blogs for Weekend previews of the Providence series: